NFL Week 3 picks, odds: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Payments thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to start out issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her big choke job in opposition to the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally large choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 in opposition to the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is actually the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her recreation. That factor has cursed the staff and my picks. For those who’ve ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs while you take a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks fallacious. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not imagine in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I needs to be simply fantastic making my picks this week. Though I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Talking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder which you could try the weekly picks from each NFL skilled by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks by on that hyperlink, so be certain to click on early and infrequently. Really, that is not true, I believe the cash truly simply goes to the funds CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Talking of Brinson, he is the host of the Decide Six Podcast, and simply in case I have never made it clear over the previous two weeks, I will be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Regardless that I am solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday by Friday and it’s best to attempt to hear as usually as attainable (You may hearken to Tuesday’s episode under and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve seen one factor concerning the Steelers this season, it is that they mainly present up each week with no offensive recreation plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been figuring out nicely for them thus far and I believe individuals are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain concerning the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have never learn critiques that dangerous since “The Emoji Film” got here out. On the fee he is going, Matt Canada may be teaching in Canada by the tip of the season. You recognize issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your title to try to get followers drunk. 

I will have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this recreation is that I don’t know which staff goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I assume should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL staff is healthier than the Browns at discovering inconceivable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I believe we’d see that on this recreation. That being stated, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not adequate to benefit from it. Via two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these recreation have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I cannot be predicting a blowout, however I can be predicting an upset. 

The choose: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

I don’t know the way it occurred, however this recreation is someway the one one on the schedule this week that can function two undefeated groups enjoying in opposition to one another. I am not normally one to inform folks what to do with their lives, however you probably have plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, it’s best to undoubtedly cancel these plans so you may watch this recreation. Properly, except you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or choosing up your toddler at a celebration or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I might really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS together with his picks final week. To be sincere, I most likely might have made extra money enjoying BINGO in Week 2 than choosing video games. 

Anyway, I have been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless don’t know what to make of them. I do assume that they are undoubtedly good, however I am simply undecided how good. Certain, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns in opposition to Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens staff that had a nasty protection and a Patriots staff that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur once they play a Payments staff that is not dangerous at both of these issues? It is most likely not going to finish nicely for the Dolphins. 

The opposite downside for the Dolphin is that they at all times appear to wrestle in opposition to Josh Allen. The Payments have gained seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a mean of 19.3 factors per recreation. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each recreation he is ever performed in opposition to the Dolphins, which undoubtedly is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel in opposition to sure groups. We have seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Payments, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I believe that domination continues on Sunday. 

The choose: Payments 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of getting this recreation moved to South America might be Rodgers’ finest likelihood at profitable this week. If he cannot pull that off, meaning he’ll must play in Florida and if there’s one factor I find out about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates enjoying within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, because the begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per recreation in Florida and 0.2 when enjoying exterior of Florida. He’s actually throwing interceptions at a ten occasions increased fee in Florida than he does at another time. It is not sensible, which I assume type of is sensible, as a result of nothing in Florida is sensible. I imply, we’re speaking a couple of state the place a man is making an attempt to interrupt the world document for largest assortment of “Titanic” motion pictures. 

And no, that tweet will not be referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is unquestionably not the world document. 

Anyway, should you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you might have seen that the air is so thick that you just really feel such as you’re respiratory out of a straw stuffed with maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You recognize what, I will simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Additionally, let’s not neglect about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from enjoying faculty soccer in California to enjoying skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to take care of Florida climate and I am beginning to assume he would possibly truly hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. Alternatively, the Buccaneers apply in that climate daily, so I am guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this recreation is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the larger matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I am taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time in opposition to Brady and I believe he might need a good worse document in opposition to excessive humidity. 

I also needs to word that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another because the NFC title recreation in January 2021. For those who do not keep in mind that recreation, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a discipline purpose with two minutes left in a recreation the place the Packers had been down eight. 

It has been almost two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that discipline purpose. The one factor that is sensible for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a discipline purpose. 

The choose: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this 12 months to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball would not actually appear to be working. At any time when Wilson drops again to cross, I’ve seen that one among three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete cross or the play is blown useless as a result of the Broncos get known as for a delay of recreation. 

As you most likely seen, all of these issues are dangerous. If somebody informed me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I might NEVER go away my home. For those who’re questioning what my bizarre situation has to do with something, I believe what I am saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three dangerous choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That’s their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely obtained 15 carries within the recreation. As a substitute of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson maintain throwing the ball, which isn’t very best when your QB is simply finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did in opposition to the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to appear like Pete Carroll might need been proper about every thing. He put a powerful operating recreation and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the staff and it may be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. As a substitute of going with the “Let Russ Cook dinner” philosophy, the Broncos would possibly need to begin embracing the “Let Russ assist in the kitchen, however do not let him cook dinner by himself” philosophy. Mainly, the Broncos ought to begin operating the ball extra and let that open up the cross. 

Though Wilson hasn’t appeared good in any respect this season, if there’s one staff he can flip issues round in opposition to, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 occasions whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is wise, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to know how the Seahawks had been capable of win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Cook dinner.

Please word that letting Russ cook dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they may be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo below heart, however I am undecided that applies once they’re enjoying AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins in opposition to AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The choose: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not need to say that this would possibly go down as the best Monday evening recreation of all-time, however I am beginning to assume it may be attainable. It is the showdown of all showdowns: We’ve a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up in opposition to a Giants staff that is undefeated on the season. 

This recreation is the immovable drive in opposition to the immovable drive and I”m saying that as a result of I do not assume both offense is basically going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday evening. The Cowboys have probably the greatest defenses within the NFL and so they’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to below 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they need not, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per recreation by two weeks and it is arduous to ascertain them topping that quantity since it will possible be the very best protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this recreation goes to return right down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a giant cause the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot methods to deal with anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers operating again averaged 6.05 yards per carry in opposition to the Cowboys and if Barkley can get anyplace close to that quantity, it’ll be a protracted evening for Dallas. 

One thing has to provide on Monday evening: Both Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession recreation (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first recreation of the season, and I can not imagine I am going to do that, however I am taking the Giants regardless that they’ve misplaced six straight Monday evening video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The choose: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remainder

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Final Week

Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in an everyday season recreation for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to fully soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? In fact I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% likelihood he’ll soften down sooner or later and there is a 50% likelihood that meltdown goes to return within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, but it surely did not occur on the sphere, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was enjoying the Saints, which I imagine is the NFL document for many consecutive video games smashing a pill in opposition to one staff. 

Worst choose: For some cause, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I will need to have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday evening as a result of no sane individual would ever choose Kirk Cousins to win a recreation on Monday evening. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst profitable proportion in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began at the very least 10 Monday evening video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions in opposition to the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Choosing Cousins to win in a Monday evening recreation is like choosing a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is not sensible, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks Document

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU general:18-13-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS general: 14-18

You’ll find John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a kind of issues, he is most likely training for the meat loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month. 

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